Why Trump’s $2,000 Tariff Checks Face Big Hurdles

President Trump keeps promising $2,000 checks to low- and middle-income Americans, funded by tariffs. He’ll send them “mid-next year or a bit later,” he says. Experts see shortfalls in cash, legal fights, and other roadblocks that make this unlikely soon.

Money Doesn’t Add Up

Tariffs won’t cover the bill. The Tax Foundation estimates checks would cost $279.8 billion to $606.8 billion, depending on details like income caps. Yale Budget Lab pegs per-person payments up to $100,000 income at $450 billion. Meanwhile, tariffs might pull in $158.4 billion this year and $207.5 billion in 2026, per the Tax Foundation—as Columbus Dispatch notes.

Trump has other plans for that revenue: cutting the deficit or funding the $3 trillion “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” according to the Congressional Budget Office. “Pure deficit spending,” says Scott Lincicome of the Cato Institute. Moody’s Mark Zandi calls them stimulus checks from taxpayer money, not true tariff dividends. The New Republic lays out these math problems. Bloomberg questions the planning.

Supreme Court Could Kill the Tariffs

The biggest threat: a Supreme Court case, Trump v. V.O.S. Selections, Inc. Lower courts already ruled against Trump’s emergency powers for “Liberation Day” tariffs. Conservative justices sounded doubtful during arguments. If struck down, no revenue for checks, and importers get refunds. NPR explains refund issues.

Companies are suing to lock in those refunds. Costco filed last week in U.S. Court of International Trade, demanding full payback if tariffs fall. Chicago Tribune reports. Revlon and Kawasaki Motors joined the list. Costco won’t say how much it’s paid but says it’s fighting price hikes on basics. White House calls the economic hit from losing tariffs “enormous.” The Independent covers the lawsuits.

Congress and Inflation Add Friction

Congress must approve, and even Republicans hesitate. Sen. Bernie Moreno says rebates “would never pass”—better to pay down $38 trillion debt. Fiscal conservatives who backed the tax bill might balk at more spending after criticizing Democrats’ 2021 checks.

Then inflation: economy’s at 3% with low unemployment. Dumping billions could spike prices without more supply, say Yale’s John Ricco and Tax Foundation’s Alex Durante. Fed might pause rate cuts, irking Trump. Past stimulus went to many programs totaling $5 trillion; this is smaller but still risky now.

No details on income caps or per-person vs. household.
Treasury’s Scott Bessent says “we will see,” needs Congress.
Commerce’s Howard Lutnick stays confident, predicts court win.

Bottom line: tariffs hurt consumers despite White House claims, and checks admit living costs hurt. Experts like Durante say skip tariffs to help people.