Holiday Shoppers Hit Records Despite Economic Jitters

Consumer confidence took a hit in November, with plans for Christmas spending dropping sharply. But stressed Americans plan to spend for the holidays anyway: actual holiday shopping told a different story: records fell during Black Friday and the Thanksgiving weekend as millions turned out for deals. Here’s the data from recent reports.

Confidence and Spending Plans Slide

A Gallup poll from November 3-25 shows U.S. economic confidence fell to -30 on their index, the lowest since July. Only 21% rated current conditions as excellent or good, down from 24% in October, while 40% called them poor.

Job views worsened too: 33% said it’s a good time for a quality job, down eight points from August. Holiday spending estimates plunged to an average $778 per person, a $229 drop from October’s $1,007 and below last November’s $1,012. That’s the biggest midseason cut Gallup has seen, bigger than 2008’s $185 fall.

High-income households ($100k+): $1,230 planned, down from $1,479.
Low-income (<$50k): $384, down from $651.
Middle-income: $842, steady.

This points to a K-shaped economy, affluent spending holding up while low- and middle-income cut back (CNN).

Still, 53% plan to spend about the same as last year, with just 29% saying less.

Black Friday Online Sales Smash Records

Spending didn’t match the caution. On Black Friday, U.S. online sales hit $11.8 billion, up 9.1% from last year, per Adobe Analytics via CBS News. Thanksgiving online reached $6.4 billion, with three-day post-Thanksgiving online sales at $23.6 billion (Reuters).

Mobile drove over half the sales, with peaks of $12.5 million per minute in carts from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. Top categories: video games, electronics, appliances. In-store traffic dipped 3.6% from 2024, says RetailNext, as shoppers spread out buys and focused online.

Salesforce pegged U.S. Black Friday online at $18 billion; Shopify merchants did $6.2 billion globally. Shoppers bought fewer items but at 7% higher prices. NRF projects over $1 trillion total holiday spend, up 3.7-4.2%.

203 Million Shoppers Over the Weekend

The National Retail Federation survey counts 202.9 million shoppers from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, topping 197 million last year and their 186.9 million forecast.

In-store: 129.5 million, up 3%.
Online: 134.9 million, up 9%.
Average spend: $337.86 per person, up from $315.56 (67% on gifts).

Black Friday led with 80.3 million in stores and 85.7 million online. Sunday set an in-store record at 32.6 million. Cyber Monday drew 75.9 million online, half via mobile. Top spots: supermarkets (47%), online (45%). Gifts like clothing (51%) and toys (32%) dominated.

These numbers come amid tariffs, layoffs, and shutdown fallout, with more buy-now-pay-later use and rising debt. Pre-Christmas retail faces uncertainty, but the weekend rush shows shoppers chasing value.