Google vs Nvidia: Valuation Fight After Gemini 3 Release

Google’s Gemini 3 came out on November 18. The model got trained only on Alphabet’s tensor processing units, or TPUs. It beats the newest models from OpenAI and Anthropic. The Motley Fool points out this success marks a shift in AI chips.

Gemini 3 Boosts Google Stock

Alphabet shares rose 66% in 2025 so far. Gemini 3 plays a part. CNBC says stock market valuations show Alphabet emerging as the AI leader over Nvidia and OpenAI. The Wall Street Journal says it beats ChatGPT. ChatGPT has 800 million weekly users. Gemini hit 650 million after adding an image tool. Forbes notes OpenAI called a “code red” to catch up.

Google Cloud brought in $15.1 billion in Q3 2025 revenue, up 33.5% year over year. Demand for TPUs outpaces supply. Backlog jumped 82% to $155 billion. Anthropic plans to use up to 1 million TPUs via Google Cloud.

TPU Deals Hit Nvidia

Meta talks to rent Google TPUs in 2026, then buy them starting 2027. The deal could be worth billions. This sent Alphabet’s market cap close to $4 trillion. Nvidia shares dropped nearly 6% the same day, falling off $5 trillion highs per Morningstar. The BBC reports Nvidia hit $5 trillion valuation in October.

Nvidia says it stays a generation ahead. It runs every AI model everywhere. Google commits to support both its TPUs and Nvidia chips.

AI Chip Market Projections

The AI chip market heads to $440 billion by 2030, growing 25% yearly on average, per Mordor Intelligence via Forbes. Nvidia holds 90% now. Kearney sees that drop to 70%. Google could go from 5% to 25%, per Vikas Sah.

Google TPUs end 2025 at 8% share. That factors in 1 million reserved for Anthropic, per Reuters and ByteBridge.
Reasons for growth: lower cost per compute, good performance, ties to Google Cloud, less supply shortage.
OpenAI got 30% off Nvidia chips by threatening TPUs, per SemiAnalysis.

Which Stock Looks Better?

Wall Street sets Alphabet target at $314.70. Shares trade just above that. Nvidia, up 45% in 2025, needs 46% gain to hit $257.72 target. Nvidia’s P/E sits at 44.6, below its 10-year average of 61.2. Alphabet’s P/E is 31.2, cheaper than Nasdaq-100.

Forbes sees Google as the better pick with TPUs and Gemini growth. The Motley Fool says Nvidia has room even if it loses lead, with AI spend possibly at $4 trillion yearly by 2030. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang made that call. Another Forbes piece calls the Google threat overhyped. It compares to generic drugs but says TPUs just add to Nvidia supply.

Both stocks ride AI growth. Nvidia keeps edge in versatility and CUDA software. Google pushes with TPUs.